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  • In-depth analysis of the impact of the epidemic situation in major overseas photovoltaic markets
    Time:2020-05-07 Browse:1272
    In-depth analysis of the impact of the epidemic situation in major overseas photovoltaic markets
    After the spread of the new crown epidemic overseas, various countries and regions have emerged, including the cancellation of exhibitions, the extension of tendering projects, the limitation of crowd logistics, and the decline in electricity prices. The development of the global photovoltaic industry has ushered in great challenges. At present, the impact of the epidemic on overseas photovoltaics is mainly reflected in five aspects:
    First, the exhibition was postponed or cancelled. IntersolarEurope is the largest solar energy trade show in Europe and the main event for photovoltaic professionals across Europe. It was originally scheduled to be held from June 17 to 19, 2020. But now it has been decided to cancel, and the next session will be held in June 2021.
    Second, delays in bidding for photovoltaic projects in multiple countries. At present, it is mainly concentrated in many countries such as the Middle East, Brazil, France and Portugal.
    Third, the rapid changes in exchange rates in some regions have led to rising photovoltaic costs. In some regions, the local currency has depreciated sharply and the US dollar has soared, which may increase the cost of solar projects by more than 30%. The most serious countries may be Mexico and Brazil.
    Fourth, the restrictions on people flow and logistics in various countries have increased, the progress of power station construction has been hindered, and the grid-connected evaluation nodes have been pushed back. At present, Spain, Australia, India and other major photovoltaic markets have launched a national blockade, and governments of various countries are curbing the spread of the new crown epidemic.
    Fifth, the decline in spot electricity prices has hindered the development of photovoltaic unsubsidized PPA projects. Due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, power demand began to shrink.
    The following is the status of the major photovoltaic markets in various regions since the spread of the overseas epidemic:
    India: Due to the temporary disruption of the product supply caused by the epidemic and the current national blockade situation, the Ministry of New Energy and Renewable Energy (MNRE) of India notified the extension of the model and manufacturer entry list (ALMM) effective date by six months. The entry list will be effective from September 2020. It is reported that about 2.3GW of photovoltaic power plants planned to be put into operation in June-August have been affected, and the nationwide blockade has stopped the construction of a total of about 5GW of photovoltaic projects. Since most of the workers have returned to their hometowns, it may take some time to resume work.
    At present, the sharp decline in electricity prices makes the development of unsubsidized photovoltaic PPA projects in Europe more difficult. On the one hand, it is difficult to calculate the project yield under the existing extremely low electricity prices. On the other hand, it is also difficult to finance. Will increase.
    For the overall European market, as new energy occupies an important position in the regional energy development system, the future development trend is relatively clear. With the control of the epidemic situation and the lifting of embargoes in various countries, the follow-up project bidding will be accelerated, and the previous losses will be compensated by pre-installation. .
    Among the countries with relatively stronger anti-risk capabilities, such as Germany and France, due to the development of the local photovoltaic industry and greater national support, under the situation of good follow-up epidemic control, photovoltaic installations are expected to usher in a rebound. While Spain, Portugal and other countries have good lighting conditions, parity projects are developing rapidly. Although the local demand will be affected by the extension of transportation, construction and bidding in the first and second quarters, with the introduction of the national control policy against the epidemic, it is expected that the new crown will have a greater impact in a short period of time. In the future, photovoltaic demand is expected to accelerate recovery after the epidemic improves.
    United States: According to a letter to Congress from the American Photovoltaic Association, the current order cancellation rate for household photovoltaics has reached 30%, and in some regions the market has reached 50%. At the same time, SEIA requested a 26% ITC tax credit extension.
    Wood Mackenzie said that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, various delays may occur in the 2GW (dc) utility photovoltaic project in 2020. According to the worst-case scenario in the United States, all aspects of the supply chain and project development will be completely stalled for several weeks, and projects up to 5GW in the US utility market will be postponed to the second half of this year or even to 2021. The latest forecast of the US Energy Agency (EIA) shows that the United States will add 12.6 GW of utility-scale installed photovoltaic capacity in 2020, and the annual new photovoltaic capacity will be 10% lower than expected.
    Brazil: The Brazilian Ministry of Energy announced in a decision that it will postpone the bidding for a series of photovoltaic projects indefinitely, including the bidding for renewable energy (A-4) and the bidding for non-renewable energy (A-6). This move affected nearly 800 solar project bids originally planned for the A-4 bid in the first half of the year.
    Due to the devaluation of Brazil ’s currency in recent weeks, according to a survey conducted by research institute Greener, approximately 60% of investors and developers have been affected by the increase in equipment costs. The current industry focus includes photovoltaic system cost (49.2%), logistics issues (23.5%), market photovoltaic system supply (17.2%), grid connection issues (11.8%), photovoltaic module supply (10.5%) and inverter A series of problems such as supply (8.5%).
    At present, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the changes in the overseas market situation in the second quarter will undoubtedly affect the progress of the installation of photovoltaic projects. The development trend of the market, EnergyTrend, will also continue to track.